Informe de política monetaria. Marzo 2013

Abstract

“The International Monetary Fund lowered global growth expectations from 3.5% to 3.1% for 2013. This reduction in growth prospects is more pronounced in developing economies; however, these economies will continue to grow at a faster rate than advanced economies. The reduction in projections is due to the fall in domestic demand in emerging countries and the recession in the Eurozone. According to the same source, the greatest downside risk in emerging economies is the possibility of the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the United States, which could trigger a return of capital and a tightening of credit conditions in the rest of the countries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, a deterioration in growth expectations is observed. Growth is projected at 3.0% for the end of 2013 and 3.4% for 2014. This deterioration occurs in a context of reduced domestic demand and less external stimulus. In Brazil, industrial production weakened, while the increase in the inflation rate Monetary policy, given the rising inflation outlook, could reduce domestic consumption. In Mexico, there was also a deterioration in consumer and business expectations due to the slower growth of exports.