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A BVAR model for forecasting Paraguay’s inflation rate in turbulent macroeconomic enviroments
(BCP, 2011-01-01)
In this research I explore the methodology of Bayesian autoregressive methods to forecast inflation and other macroeconomic time series of interest. I estimate a Bayesian vector of autoregressive model to forecast inflation, ...
Foreign shocks and aggregate price fluctuations in a small commodity exporter economy
(2018-07-07)
This paper examines the role of foreign shocks on aggregate prices in the small net commodity exporter economy of Paraguay. I apply a bayesian methodology for variable choice in VARS and and find that foreign variables ...
The measurement of liquidity and optimal monetary policy response in a financial market in development: the case of Paraguay
(BCP, 2012-06-01)
This paper explains the relationship between monetary policy decisions and the liquidity indicators. To this end, a Taylor Rule is estimated and transitory deviations from the rule are related to a selected liquidity ...
Forecasting inflation with ANN models
(BCP, 2010-12-01)
In this research I investigate the alternative methodology of training artificial neural networks models with the early stopping procedure and I analyze their outcomes in terms of accuracy when forecasting monthly Paraguayan ...