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Foreign shocks and aggregate price fluctuations in a small commodity exporter economy

dc.creatorBarrail, Zulma
dc.date.accessioned2019-09-30T14:41:52Z
dc.date.available2019-09-30T14:41:52Z
dc.date.created2018-07-07
dc.date.issued2018-07-07
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dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.bcp.gov.py/handle/123456789/88
dc.description.abstractThis paper examines the role of foreign shocks on aggregate prices in the small net commodity exporter economy of Paraguay. I apply a bayesian methodology for variable choice in VARS and and find that foreign variables such as those reflecting regional financial risk and commodity prices are highly relevant in the prediction of aggregate prices in Paraguay. Next, I estimate an over-identified SVAR model with block exogeneity restrictions in order to quantify the effect of shocks in commodity prices and regional risk on key variables, namely the Consumer Price Index, Food CPI, the exchange rate, a monthly indicator of output and the nominal interest rate. Commodity prices shocks explain a substantial percentage of movements in almost all domestic variables, particularly CPI and its food component.
dc.format.extent28 páginas
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofDocumentos de Trabajo
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDocumento de Trabajo
dc.relation.isversionofDocumento de Trabajo; N° 21
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
dc.subjectINFLACIÓN
dc.subjectVECTORES AUTORREGRESIVOS
dc.subjectPRECIOS DE COMMODITIES
dc.subjectMODELO BAYESIANO DE ELECCIÓN
dc.titleForeign shocks and aggregate price fluctuations in a small commodity exporter economy
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.subject.jelE31
dc.subject.jelE32
dc.subject.jelE52
dc.subject.jelC32
dc.subject.jelC52
dc.subject.keywordINFLATION
dc.subject.keywordSTRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION
dc.subject.keywordCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subject.keywordBAYESIAN MODEL CHOICE
dc.rights.accessRightsOpen Access
dc.type.spaDocumento de Trabajo
dc.type.hasversionPublished Version
dc.rights.ccCC0 1.0 Universal
dc.rights.spaAcceso abierto


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